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Savills Agribusiness Update Print E-mail
Written by Antony Oliphant   
Friday, 15 June 2007
 
Agribusiness Update
June 2007
Savills



While commodity markets continue to excite the arable sector input costs for livestock are rising at a rate which will be disproportionate to margin. Climate change continues to make the headlines but for producers the next challenge will be to understand their carbon footprint and ways in which they will be able to meet the standards required of their customers. Do talk to our agribusiness advisers about the challenges your business might face in the future.


Markets & Quotas

Crops£/tTrend
Wheat97   Firmer
Oil Seed Rape168Firmer
Beans128Weaker
Livestockp/kgTrend
Lamb271 d'wtFirmer
Beef207 d'wtWeaker
Pig Meat109 d'wtFirmer
Milk
Farmgate (av)17.75ppl
Quota Sale2.40 ppl
Quota Lease0.20 ppl

Industry Issues

  • Cereal markets around the world hit new contract highs last week as news was released of drought in the Ukraine and weather concerns in the US. Bulgaria and Northern China have drought problems and Romania has marked its crop down by 40%. Marketing the 2007 harvest will now prove interesting and with some producers already committed up to 40% of sales, forecasting the top of the market will be a challenge
  • Whether any market controls will be imposed by the EU to protect the livestock sector is a question some traders are wondering - it seems unlikely unless the values rise significantly above the current range
  • UK millers use of home-grown wheat has increased by 1% in the current season with only 0.68 Mt out of the total 4.2 Mt used imported
  • Malaysian palm oil futures reached 9 year highs last week and US soya oil futures came close to a 23 year high. These price rises have reduced both oils competitiveness for the production of biodiesel
  • Pulse crops have recovered after recent rains with their potential now looking much better. Market values are and will remain firm with strong export demand for new crop
  • EU maize intervention has now been agreed with a ceiling for purchases set at 1.5 Mt in 2007/08 and 0.7 Mt in 2008/09. Thereafter intervention won't be continued
  • HGCA are promoting oilseed rape as a locally grown alternative to olive oil. The campaign will highlight the nutritional benefits of rapeseed oil which is low in saturated fat and a source of vitamin D and E
  • The AMPE (actual milk price equivalent),which is an independent calculation tracking the current market prices for butter and skimmed milk powder and relating these to a delivered milk price to a dairy processor, continues to soar. The current divergence between AMPE and farmgate price suggest that there could be cause for further milk price increases in the future. The AMPE has increased by 29% to 23.8ppl since January
  • According to Reuters drinking yoghurt is the fastest growing food category in the world with annual sales growth having reached 18.4%
  • According to the latest MDC statistics while UK dairy producers have declined in all regions the national herd size has increased. The main increases have been in Scotland and Northern Ireland. While herd size has remained the same, yield per cow continues to increase - it is now 23% higher than 10 years ago
  • Milk quota values continued to fall and while they are now 84% down on 04/05 they hardly register against the figure of 61.99ppl in 1996. 55% of quota is now held by farms producing more the 1Mlt per year
  • Lamb prices have made some recovery as retailers change to new season lamb but the scale of New Zealand Imports continues to raise concern. According to recent DEFRA statistics both sheep and cattle slaughterings were significantly down in the first quarter of 2007 while the number of pigs killed was at a 4 year high
  • Recent data from EBLEX (English Beef and Lamb Executive) shows that just 46% of prime beef is hitting the ideal target market specification with 43% failing on conformation and 6% are too fat
  • Yara Fertilisers recently released bid for Kemira will make it Europe's number one supplier.  The news is likely to have come as a shock to Terra who have been floundering with the Competition Commission to finalise a UK joint venture with Kemira. It seems likely that the JV will go through regardless - Yara is of course Terra largest customer in the UK
  • The UK AN market has as expected started trading at around £149/tonne. Of course while gas prices have reduced it is straightforward supply and demand economics that has fired the market. This position seems likely to continue until 2009 at least.

Single Payment Scheme (SPS) & Environmental Stewardship

  • EU Farm Ministers are likely to agree to the Fruit and Vegetable reform this week - most areas of change are now clear although agreement will have to be reached on how the crisis funding will work and also how some partial coupling of direct aid will be allowed for a short transition period
  • The school fruit and vegetable scheme sought by Commissioner Fischer Boel within the sector reforms should have a budget of €100m from EU funds with national co-funding of at least the same amount. The Commission has said that the scheme would be optional for Member States
  • The Commissioner plans to publish a Communication on the 'Health Check' in October to launch the debate. She has hinted that compulsory modulation would be increased to reach 10% by 2013 as a modest proposal. She is adamant that 0.3 ha is too low a threshold for eligibility to the Single Payment Scheme and that it should rise to 1.0 ha as a more appropriate measure to call something a farm. As far as 'capping' is concerned she is now hesitant at the efficiency of such a measure given lawyers' ability to split holdings - however she hinted that the Commission was looking at other ways of dealing with the larger beneficiaries
  • According to a Commission Green Paper due to be published this week adaptation to climate change should be an explicit objective of all agricultural and rural development policies and should be fully integrated into both pillars of the CAP. It suggests promoting minimum or zero tillage and makes the case for significant increases in R & D expenditure to look other mitigation measures
  • Finally, on the 'home' front applications for HLS seem destined to be challenging with high points targets remaining in place in most regions. As feared earlier in the year a number of farmers who have been committed to CSS for the last 10 years will not be able to upgrade to HLS and will be faced with the dilemma of continuing to maintain those environmental measures without compensation or withdrawing. For most neither will be a decision they will relish taking.

West

Ashley Lilley
01531 651 203
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Head of Agribusiness

Mark Little
01603 229 225 This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

North & East Midlands

Robert Hall 
01522 508 982 This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

South

Steve Hollis
01722 426 850
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Central

Keith Preston
01865 269 170
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East Anglia

Peter Bennett
01223 347 221
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